We’re not dead
Coming back from a 2 day NPR “summit” in DC to today’s new report on digitial media published by Bridge Ratings. Here’s what jumped out:
- Internet listening tops the growth projected for 2007 for terrestrial, satellite, HD radio, and other platforms.
- On-line listening to terrestrial simulcasts will increase.
- Satellite radio growth is slowing.
- HD radio projections are bleaker than satellite, “disappointing” industry expectations.
- In a reversal, 12-21 year olds were less likely in these 2006 studies to abandon terrestrial radio as they were in the 2004 studies.
2. On-line listening to terrestrial simulcasts will increase. 25% of Internet listeners report listening to at least one on-line simulcast of on-air station in the 30-days prior to the survey. Projected to move to 31% by the beginning of next year and 38% by 2010 (contingent on outcome of the current copyright debate).3. Satellite radio growth is slowing. Previous 2007 audience growth projection of 3.9 million new listeners are tempered to 2.4 million. Sirius projected to take 60% of the new subscribers which would boost its listenership to 8.1 million versus 8.96 million for XM.4. HD radio projections are bleaker than satellite, “disappointing” industry expectations. Consumer awareness grows, but interest in owning or listening to HD slows. While 70% have heard of HD radio, just 9% say they are “Very Interested in owning HD radio.” Reasons give are “little or no interest “was “Don’t see a need” followed by “Not aware of its benefits”.
5. In a reversal, 12-21 year olds were less likely in these 2006 studies to abandon terrestrial radio as they were in the 2004 studies. Hinged on two factors: 1) renewed interest in terrestrial radio and/or its Internet simulcast and 2) “iPod fatigue” among a significant number of 12-21 year olds. From 2004 to 2006 the Bridge “panel” had reduced their weekly use of their MP3 players returning to terrestrial radio listening patterns similar to those this group used in 2004.
My view, gazing through this latest prism, is that:
1. We’re not dead. Whew. So before you move into your retirement planning, consider that there’s plenty of opportunity for traditional radio to grow, including among the young demographics who are often perceived to be abandoning us. Key, however, is that we’re going to find them via our on-line streams… not via receivers. Get busy thinking about what you’re going to do different with your stream.
2. Satellite is not the threat to pubradio audience once perceived, and the opportunities for pubradio to grow audience via satellite channels is limited.
3. HD opportunity is also quite limited. This could change, if there is a significant shift in public perception and habits re: the technology. Hard to make the case, tho, that it is within pubradio’s capacity to drive the shift that’s necessary. That’s not really our job.
Full report, plus more info on cell phones & podcasting at http://www.bridgeratings.com/
Posted: April 26th, 2007 under SuseMuse blog.
Comments: 3
Comments
Comment from Stephen Hill
Time: April 27, 2007, 2:11 pm
I’m glad to see the data coming out to support the predictions that I and many other media technology people made up to six years ago: simply put, the Internet will outplay all competing delivery methods in the medium and long term.
And we don’t even have a truly robust system for wireless Internet access yet.
When that day comes, you will see massive numbers abandoning their old paradigms for what will be a fundamentally more powerful media experience. That will take some time, because in addition to building out the wireless infrastructure, a new generation of portable devices, software and user account management protocols will be needed. This is really the difference between one-way, broadcast media and two-way, interactive media. And while the net can easily subsume broadcasting, broadcasting cannot be interactive except in very limited ways.
What the Bridge Ratings data is also showing is that radio programming — i.e. value-added audio production — will be more important than ever. The main reason for this is the scarcity of TIME in listener’s schedules, and the increasing value of consistent, “trusted,” high quality sources for repeated use. Thus, for example, the rise of podcasting of established specialty programs.
The key point is that what we have called “radio” — value-added programming — is slowly detaching itself from the “terrestrial” “satellite” “HD” delivery platforms and finding its way into the Internet delivery platforms of the present and the future.
:: SH
Comment from Brian
Time: May 2, 2007, 4:38 pm
“HD Radio on the Offense”
“But after an investigation of HD Radio units, the stations playing HD, and the company that owns the technology; and some interviews with the wonks in DC, it looks like HD Radio is a high-level corporate scam, a huge carny shill.”
http://www.eastbayexpress.com/2007-03-07/music/hd-radio-on-the-offense
It hasn’t taken too long for some members of the press and radio-geeks to figure out that HD Radio is just a monopoly by the HD Radio Alliance/iBiquity to squeeze out smaller stations with adjacent-channel interference. The HD channels are bland, underfunded dumps of the analog streams. Since the IBOC digital saddlebags can only be broadcast at 1/100th the power of the main analog channels, HD Radio reception is problematic, even with external antennas - this will be HD Radio’s Achilles Heel.
Comment from Sue
Time: April 27, 2007, 8:56 am
P.W. Fenton responded to this post on the Association of Indies in Radio (AIR) listerve with:
At 11:09 AM 4/26/2007 -0700, Sue Schardt wrote…
>Bridge Ratings < http://www.bridgeratings.com > today published it’s latest
>report on digital media. Here¹s what jumped at me re: radio:
>So, what¹s it all mean?
It means that results can be interpreted in a way favorable to a personal point of view (or wish). I went to the site and read the report, I got a totally different impression. To me it looked like digital media is growing, and analog
terrestrial radio is declining, which seems to confirm my personal experience.
P.W. Fenton
Hudson, Florida
http://digitalflotsam.org
Feed - http://digitalflotsam.org/rss.xml
To which I responded:
P.W.
I think we’re in agreement. I write:
“Key, however, is that we’re going to find them (the younger demographic) via on-line streams… not via receivers. Get busy thinking about what you’re going to do with on-line streaming, podcasting, and — critical to any new programming efforts — finding ways to drive listeners on new platforms to your content.”
My thinking is influenced, too, by meetings I attended earlier this week at NPR.. the annual “stakeholder” meeting attended by NPR A-Reps. I don’t think I’m alone in my impression is that there are a lot of managers/gatekeepers who are discouraged, and not sure which way to go with it all. NPR convenes everyone, which is important, but it’s still unclear who is taking the lead; giving direction, or if, indeed, there is any one entity that is supposed to be doing that. The paradigm by which the system was created has, and continues, to shift, and calls for a new kind of leadership.
These thoughts are on my mind, and I wanted to make the point that public radio stations — and specifically, the “elder statesmen” who built the system we have today — still have an important role to play before they ride off into the sunset.
- s
SchardtMEDIA Strategies :: Boston, MA :: http://www.SchardtMEDIA.org